Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
